Signal Catalogue | Vivameda

Six signals, stated in full

Three scaling signals, two distress signals and one integrity signal. Patterns in the library are built from combinations of these.

Scaling signal

Condition: Senior functional coverage present in the first two observed years across at least three distinct functions, with no single function above sixty percent of observed headcount.
Evaluation window: Years one and two after first observation
Why it works: Teams that carry engineering, commercial and operating capability at the same time can absorb a demand shock without a hiring cycle. Companies that scale later usually already had the shape earlier.
What it looks like in the data: Balanced function mix instead of a single dominant function
Senior titles appearing before headcount expansion, not after
Low churn among the first cohort through year three
Where it misreads: Concentrated by design. Deep tech and single discipline research firms fail this condition legitimately, so S1 alone should never exclude a company from a pipeline.

Scaling signal

Condition: Function additions occur in a repeatable order, with each new function established for at least one observed year before the next is added, over a three year window.
Evaluation window: Rolling three years
Why it works: Ordered expansion indicates a plan being executed rather than capital being spent. Unordered expansion, several functions appearing in the same year, historically precedes restructuring more often than it precedes scale.
What it looks like in the data: One new function per observed year, established before the next
Seniority filled beneath a new function rather than above it
Stable tenure distribution while headcount rises
Where it misreads: Acquisitions distort ordering. A single acquisition can add three functions in one year without any loss of discipline, so acquisitive firms need the event flagged before the signal is read.

Scaling signal

Condition: Headcount growth above the panel median while the share of roles with tenure under twelve months stays below the cohort threshold, sustained two or more years.
Evaluation window: Rolling three years
Why it works: Growth that keeps its people compounds capability. Growth that replaces its people resets it. The pairing of the two series separates real scaling from churn financed headcount.
What it looks like in the data: Rising headcount with a stable, not collapsing, tenure profile
Internal seniority progression visible inside the same employer
No spike in one year exits during the expansion
Where it misreads: Tenure distributions in the panel skew older than reality, because short roles are recorded less consistently. Treat the threshold as directional within a cohort rather than absolute.

Distress signal

Condition: Two or more years of minus three percent or worse headcount growth inside a rolling three year window, with no offsetting function addition.
Evaluation window: Rolling three years
Why it works: Cost discipline shows up as a hiring freeze first and as a filing later. Sustained contraction without a strategic function shift is the single most reliable precursor in the historical panel.
What it looks like in the data: Growth band between minus six and minus thirteen percent annually
Support functions shrinking before core functions
Senior departures preceding the broad decline
Where it misreads: Deliberate divestment looks identical from the outside. A confirmed carve out explains the contraction and should be excluded before the signal is treated as distress.

Distress signal

Condition: A function loses more than a quarter of its observed share over three years while total headcount stays flat or grows.
Evaluation window: Rolling three years
Why it works: Capability leaves before the company shrinks. Hollowing out engineering, quality or compliance while total headcount holds is a structural change that filings do not describe.
What it looks like in the data: One function declining against a stable total
Replacement hiring at lower seniority
Rising ratio of generalist to specialist roles
Where it misreads: Outsourcing produces the same shape. Where a function moves to a vendor, capability may be intact and only the employment relationship changed.

Integrity signal

Condition: Headcount expansion above the panel top decile while operating functions stay flat, sustained two or more years.
Evaluation window: Rolling three years
Why it works: Where growth appears in administration, corporate development and finance while the functions that deliver the product do not move, the organisation is expanding around the claim rather than the operation.
What it looks like in the data: Corporate functions outgrowing delivery functions
Title inflation without matching function depth
Rapid senior hiring concentrated in one function
Where it misreads: Platform holding companies show this shape by design. Read it only where the entity is presented as an operating business.

Applying the catalogue

A signal is only informative where the series is long enough to support it.

Seed to Series A

S1 and S2 dominate. Series are short, so shape matters more than trend.

Below five observed years a company returns insufficient evidence rather than a pattern.

Series B to growth

S3 becomes the deciding signal. Expansion is visible in every case, retention is not.

Acquisition events must be flagged before sequencing is read.

Established operator

D1 and D2 carry the predictive weight, with lead times historically between ten and twenty eight months.

Divestment and outsourcing are the two legitimate explanations to rule out first.

Public and scrutinised

I1 supplements the distress reads where disclosure and structure disagree.

Holding structures produce false positives and should be excluded by entity type.

Signals can be delivered as a scoring run on a supplied company list, as a licensed signal layer, or as full panel access for internal modelling.